ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. The bank assessed poverty based on the international threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the largest contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP area.
Afghanistan, along with Syria and Yemen, together make up another 47% of the population living below the $3 poverty line across the region. These four countries, including Pakistan, collectively represent about 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, roughly 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels are higher than before the pandemic and continue to rise.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened at the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate reached nearly 48%, up from 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributes this deterioration to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustments. These shocks are identified as key factors behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Poverty levels escalate following multiple economic shocks
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP was one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
While Pakistan’s economy has resumed positive growth, poverty levels remain high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is forecasted to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The report also predicts inflation rates of 7.1% for 2026 and 8.2% for 2027, indicating that inflation is expected to rise despite continued economic growth.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share of the regional poverty burden is partly due to a statistical reclassification. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty statistics because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, thus impacting the regional poverty share data.
The October regional update also highlighted a slowdown in economic activity across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a growth of 3.3% in 2025. Several economies faced setbacks due to conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Despite these challenges, developing oil-importing countries like Pakistan are expected to remain relatively resilient, with an estimated growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across the region.